THE MAIN FACTOR IN PREDICTING SOCCER BETS
Since the task is about choosing one, the most important factor in football forecasting, then you should list them all, to begin with. Having briefly characterized the main parameters that professional analysts will look at, we will try to highlight factor # 1. In the list that bookmakers present for a specific match, there are dozens of markets of different directions: for the main result, individual and total goals totals, combinations of conditions for outcomes and goals, various auxiliary statistical indicators. Of course, different factors affect unevenly different types of outcomes in matches, and this must also be taken into account. We will proceed from an estimate of the overweight. That is, the main outcomes and individual totals. Having revealed the advantage of one of their teams in these areas, they already decide to take victories directly, negative or zero handicaps, double chances,
The main factors of football forecasting:
- team motivation;
- playing styles;
- field factor (home, departure);
- history of personal meetings.
Let’s go through these points, evaluate their role. In the results, we will compare the importance of each and identify the main factor.
Any human activity is associated with motivation. As practice shows, it is extremely difficult to lift the fifth point off the couch, if there is no serious incentive to do so. So in sports, motivation plays a huge role. Teams aim at different objectives in different tournaments. It is necessary to clearly understand and distinguish between games with different motivational content.
Friendly games have practically no incentive to win. Therefore, it is recommended to avoid them for serious bets. Quite another matter is motivation for domestic championships of countries, cups, Eurocups, national team tournaments. The presence of motivation does not mean its homogeneity yet. For example, in championships, 3 points are given for victories, and 1 point for a draw. The team that scores more points in the distance wins the championship. So the motivation in the championship is distributed across all rounds. Only closer to the finish line, strong distortions are possible, due to the early achievement of certain positions by the teams, or, on the contrary, the loss of even mathematical chances for the best places. As a result, it is possible to find the difference in motivation in relation to the games of the regular championship only at the finish line. For some teams, especially for middle peasants and outsiders, the factor of one’s own field has a great influence on motivation. It is on their own fields that such teams try to win, if the opponent allows, or to keep a draw against the favorites. But at a party such teams are usually satisfied with a draw, and defeat is often perceived calmly, with an understanding of the superiority of the opponent.
The class is determined by various indirect parameters. First, you can look at the club budgets, the transfer cost of the team’s players. Secondly, on the ambitions, what goals the management declares for the season, look at past achievements. If it was only class that determined strength, then the moneybags would always win. It would be enough to pump up the team with money and automatically assign all possible titles to it. But we see a slightly different picture in reality. Yes, money is important. A good budget, great expensive players are serious factors that can give a team a high-quality impetus. But that’s not all.
And here comes the second factor – game form, teamwork. A well-coordinated team of middle-class footballers can fight an unplayed set of stars. We see dozens of examples of this from season to season. At the same time, teams that are well played and at the same time cool in composition are invincible teams, grandees.
One more nuance. Can a great team in good shape lose with an optimal line-up of performers on the pitch? Yes, it can, but subject to the influence of the factor of the difference in motivation. We can regularly observe how the lack of strong motivation to win here and now levels the class.
While defining a class is fairly straightforward, it is more difficult to determine the relationship between the class and the current gameform. Especially with regard to the constantly changing combinations of players, lineups.
As you can see, strength is one of the key factors in determining an edge. However, it can be called the main one only with the proviso that the motivation of the opponents is at the same level, and the compositions are optimal. Then you can safely focus on the current form and class.
Another significant factor to consider when predicting the outcome of football matches is play style. Some teams are used to dominating, powerfully attacking positionally, playing control. Such teams have the skill to open deeply echeloned defenses, to pick up “buses”. Naturally, teams of lower class, who tried to play with such clubs in the open, are simply demolished. On the other hand, teams accustomed to dominating their championship often find themselves in an awkward situation on the international stage when the scythe finds itself on a rock. The opponent takes the ball himself, and our team is not trained to counterattack properly.
There are average teams who, on the contrary, feel like a fish in water in counterattacks. They are even more comfortable when the opponent holds the ball more. These are the clubs that can have problems opening the “buses”.
There are different teams regarding defensive play: closed, balanced, overly open. You should always be on the alert with the former, because even a much cooler club can break teeth on their “bus”. When football meets anti-football, it is always painful to watch, even more painful if you put your bet on the favorite. So evaluating styles, calculating perspectives from their combinations is a very important factor.
There may be a different ratio of styles. If both clubs are sharply attacking, focusing more on attack than on their own defense, then this is a signal to refrain from betting on the main outcomes. Better to look towards the total.
As important as it is, playing styles should be taken as a supporting factor. He certainly does not pretend to be in charge.